India's oil story over the past decade can be captured in two contrasting trends.
Domestic crude oil production has steadily declined, while petroleum-product consumption has continued to rise. According to India’s Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), India's crude oil production fell from about 36.9 million tonnes in 2015–2016 to 27.95 million tonnes in 2025–2026. Over the same period, consumption of petroleum products increased from 184.67 million tonnes to 243.2 million tonnes (Fig. 1).
Over the decade, crude oil production declined at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.7%, while petroleum product consumption grew at a CAGR of 2.8%.
The consequence is straightforward: India is becoming increasingly dependent on imported crude to meet growing demand. For a country that is simultaneously expanding its economy, refining capacity and mobility, reversing the decline in domestic production has become an energy security priority.
This backdrop helps to explain why India is now turning to its offshore frontier.
From No-Go to New Frontier
For years, large portions of offshore India remained unavailable for exploration because of restrictions linked to strategic considerations. The policy landscape has now changed significantly. The government has opened more than 99% of the offshore area earlier classified as “no-go” for exploration. The National Offshore Exploration Scheme, or Samudra Manthan, is intended to accelerate this effort through seismic acquisition, deepwater drilling, and supporting infrastructure.
The Andaman-Nicobar Basin illustrates why this change is interesting.
In the Directorate General of Hydrocarbon (DGH)'s Andaman-Nicobar Basin profile, the basin covers about 47,000 km2, including deepwater areas, and forms part of a much larger island-arc system extending from Myanmar in the north toward Indonesia in the south.
The region lies within a complex convergent plate-boundary system associated with the subduction of the Indian Plate beneath the Burma microplate. The resulting tectonic evolution created a complex system of volcanic and outer arcs, fore-arc and back-arc settings, faults, and structural highs. Such geological settings can provide the ingredients required for a petroleum system—source rocks, reservoirs, seals, and traps.
And there are encouraging geological signals.
DGH assessment identifies organic-rich sediments and potential source intervals, including the Baratang Formation. It also identifies possible carbonate and clastic reservoirs, including turbidite sands, as well as structural and stratigraphic trapping opportunities.
The regional geological story extends beyond India's boundary. The Andaman island arc system continues southward towards Sumatra, Indonesia, while the wider Andaman Sea extends between Myanmar and Thailand. Commercial hydrocarbons are already produced in adjoining geological provinces, including the Arun gas field in northern Sumatra. These producing systems provide a useful regional geological analogue, but not proof of commercial accumulations on the Indian side.
But this is where caution is important.
A producing basin next door does not mean the same volume or quality of hydrocarbons exists on the Indian side. Geological continuity creates a reason to explore; it does not prove commercial reserves.
From Geological Potential to Early Evidence
India has actually been exploring the Andaman-Nicobar Basin for decades. Geological mapping began in the late 1950s, followed by offshore geophysical exploration. According to DGH, more than 36,000 line km of geophysical data have subsequently been acquired by ONGC, Oil India, and DGH.
There have also been hydrocarbon indications.
DGH records a gas discovery in a Middle Miocene limestone in the AN-1-1 well and oil and gas shows associated with the Baratang Formation. Oil India Ltd. has also reported natural-gas occurrence in the Vijayapuram-2 well. These indications are encouraging, but they should not be confused with proof of a large commercial oil province.
That distinction is crucial.
The Andaman story today is not about announcing that a giant oil field has been found. It is about moving from geological possibility to geological confidence—and ultimately, if the evidence supports it, to commercial development.
From Geological Potential to a National Exploration Mission
The Andaman story is only one part of a much larger offshore opportunity.
India's future hydrocarbon potential is increasingly being pursued across frontier areas such as the Krishna-Godavari, Cauvery, Mahanadi, and Andaman regions, where deeper water, limited exploration, and complex geology have historically made exploration difficult.
This is where Samudra Manthan, the National Offshore Exploration Scheme, becomes important.
Approved by the Union Cabinet in July 2026 with an outlay of ₹84,084 crore (approximately $8.8 billion), based on an indicative exchange rate, through FY2030–2031, the program is designed not merely to drill more wells, but to address some of the reasons why offshore exploration has remained difficult: inadequate seismic coverage, high drilling costs, limited common infrastructure, and the risks associated with frontier exploration.
The approach is therefore broader than exploration alone. Better 2D and 3D seismic data, reprocessing of older data, advanced interpretation, deepwater drilling, and common production and evacuation infrastructure are being brought together under one program. The scheme also provides support for eligible deepwater exploration wells, where drilling costs can be exceptionally high.
That changes the exploration equation.
Instead of asking explorers to take the entire geological and financial risk, the policy attempts to create an ecosystem in which data, technology, capital, and infrastructure work together.
The Number Behind the Ambition
Samudra Manthan aims to add over 600 million tonnes of oil equivalent (TOE) in hydrocarbon reserves and expand India's hydrocarbon resource base from around 1.6 billion TOE to 2.2 billion TOE. Subject to exploration success, the scheme aims to raise annual domestic oil and gas production from around 62 million TOE to 80 million TOE. The government estimates the scheme could cut India's crude-oil import bill by nearly ₹1 lakh crore annually through increased domestic production.
The reserve-accretion target of 600 million TOE covers hydrocarbons rather than 600 million TOE of recoverable crude oil. It should therefore not be converted directly into “years of India's oil consumption.” Actual recoverable volumes will depend on what exploration finds, the proportion of oil and gas, reservoir characteristics, recovery factors, development economics, and the pace at which discoveries can be brought onstream.
That distinction matters because exploration is a game of probabilities. The program can improve the odds. It cannot guarantee the result.
What Could Success Look Like?
For India, success does not necessarily mean becoming self-sufficient in crude oil. That is neither a realistic short-term expectation nor the right benchmark.
India consumed 239.2 million tonnes of petroleum products in 2024–2025, while crude oil production was only 28.7 million tonnes. Against this scale, even a significant increase in domestic production would remain only a part of India's total requirement. But that does not make the additional barrels unimportant.
If Samudra Manthan succeeds in raising domestic oil and gas production toward the government's target, it could create a larger and more stable domestic production base at a time when India's existing fields are naturally declining. The government estimates that producing oil and gas fields experience a natural decline of around 6–7% every year. Exploration is therefore not only about finding new resources: it is also about replacing production that is continuously being lost from mature fields.
This is a subtle but important point. India does not have the luxury of treating exploration as an occasional activity. Every year that production declines, the country needs new discoveries simply to prevent the domestic supply base from shrinking further.
The 5-to-10-Year Question
There is another reason why the program needs to be viewed through a long-term lens. Exploration does not immediately translate into production. The government estimates that the typical period between awarding an exploration block and start of commercial production can be 5 to 10 years. A seismic survey undertaken today may identify a prospect. A well may then test it. If hydrocarbons are discovered, appraisal follows. Only after the size and quality of the discovery are understood can a development concept be selected, infrastructure planned, and production started.
This means that some of the wells drilled under Samudra Manthan will be testing India's energy supply well into the next decade. The decision to explore today is effectively a decision about where India's domestic energy supply could come from tomorrow.
Beyond the Barrels
The value of Samudra Manthan could also extend beyond the oil and gas produced.
Deepwater exploration is one of the most technologically intensive parts of the energy industry. It requires advanced seismic acquisition and processing, drilling technology, subsea systems, offshore construction, marine logistics, data interpretation, and specialized engineering. A sustained exploration program can therefore create capabilities that remain valuable beyond an individual discovery. This is particularly relevant for India.
The country has already developed considerable offshore operating experience. What Samudra Manthan can potentially add is scale and depth of capability—from geological data and prospect generation to drilling, subsea technology, offshore infrastructure, and eventually field development. In that sense, the objective is bigger than finding oil. It is also about building the capability to find, develop, and produce hydrocarbons in increasingly challenging environments.
Why the Name Samudra Manthan?
In Indian mythology, Samudra Manthan literally means the “churning of the ocean”—the legendary churning of the cosmic ocean by the Devas and Asuras to bring forth treasures hidden beneath its depths. The modern initiative draws on that imagery: India is, in a very different and practical sense, looking beneath its seas to discover resources that could strengthen its energy security.
The metaphor is particularly fitting for exploration. What lies beneath the ocean cannot be seen directly. It has to be inferred, tested, and progressively understood through data, science, and technology.
Exploration Still Has No Guarantees
This is perhaps the most important reality to keep in view. India's offshore basins may be prospective. Some have encouraging geological indicators. Some are connected to broader petroleum systems in which commercial hydrocarbons have already been found. But prospective does not mean proven.
A good source rock does not guarantee commercial accumulation. A reservoir does not guarantee sufficient charge. A trap can exist without being filled. And even a discovery may not be economically viable at the prevailing oil price and development cost. This is particularly relevant for deepwater projects, where capital requirements are high and development timelines are long.
The success of Samudra Manthan should therefore not be measured only by the number of wells drilled. A better set of questions would be: How much new prospective acreage becomes drill-ready? How many wells result in discoveries? How many discoveries become commercial projects? How quickly can they be brought into production? And how much incremental domestic supply ultimately reaches the market? That is where the real scorecard will emerge.
Why Samudra Manthan Matters Now
India's energy transition is gathering pace, but hydrocarbons are not disappearing from the country's energy system overnight. Transport, petrochemicals, aviation, manufacturing, and several other sectors will continue to require hydrocarbons for years to come. At the same time, India's overall energy demand is expected to keep growing with economic development.
This creates a difficult balancing act. India needs to expand renewable energy and pursue a lower-carbon pathway. But it also needs reliable and affordable energy during the transition.
Domestic exploration is relevant to both sides of this equation. More domestic production can reduce exposure to international supply disruptions and price volatility. It can conserve foreign exchange and strengthen the resilience of the energy system. At the same time, a stronger domestic upstream sector gives India greater control over how it manages the transition rather than having to navigate it with an increasingly import-dependent hydrocarbon system.
The objective, therefore, need not be to choose between energy transition and hydrocarbons. It can be to ensure that India has enough energy security to manage the transition on its own terms.
The Real Samudra Manthan
The name may come from an ancient story, but the modern challenge is very real. There is no certainty that the ocean will yield a giant new oil province. There may be discoveries that disappoint. Some prospects may be dry. Some discoveries may never become commercial.
But exploration has always worked this way. The value of a national exploration program is not that it guarantees a discovery. Its value lies in systematically improving the probability of finding one. For India, that probability now matters more than ever.
Domestic crude production has declined over the past decade even as petroleum consumption has reached record levels. Mature fields will continue to decline. Import dependence will remain high. And developing a new domestic production base can take a decade. Against this backdrop, leaving large offshore areas underexplored is itself a strategic risk.
Samudra Manthan is therefore not a promise of energy independence. It is something more practical—a long-term attempt to widen India's search for domestic energy, reduce the risks around that search, and build the capability required to turn geological potential into production.
The real prize may not be one giant discovery. It may be a series of discoveries across India's offshore basins that, taken together, slow the decline in domestic production, add new supply, create technological capability, and reduce India's vulnerability to external shocks.
The ocean may or may not hold the next giant Indian oil field. But India is now preparing to look at scale. In exploration, deciding to look is the first essential step towards discovering what lies beneath the surface.
