[Editor's Note: Mrigya Fogat and Piergiuseppe Fiore are members of the TWA Editorial Board and the authors of previous TWA articles.]
Last year marked the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement, a watershed moment on climate action when more than 190 countries agreed to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The decade has seen a tremendous transition take root. However looking ahead, it is clear that global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and enhance carbon removals are failing to materialize at the pace and scale needed to keep up with the Paris Agreement.
For the past 2 decades, the discussion on energy transition has been dominated by the goal to save the planet. However, geopolitical tension in the past 5 years, primarily the heightened uncertainty in 2025, has shifted the energy discussion toward energy security. This does not mean that the energy transition has taken a back seat, but rather that the notion behind it has changed. According to the World Economic Forum, global energy investment in 2025 is likely to have passed $3.3 trillion, with $2.2 trillion flowing into clean energy technologies.
Below, we document the current status across three pillars of the energy transition: geopolitics and policy, infrastructure, and impact.
Geopolitics and Policy
The geopolitical tensions over the past few years, particularly 2025 and 2026, have put energy security at the top of the agenda for most countries. The Russia/Ukraine war and, more recently, the conflict in the Middle East, which disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz (a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows), drove oil prices above $100/bbl, raising concerns about both price volatility and supply security. Historically, such crises often act as catalysts for structural transformation.
Europe
Fifty-seven percent of EU’s total energy consumption is still dependent on imported fossil fuels, and an additional €24 billion (USD 28 billion) was spent on fossil fuel imports since the Middle East conflict escalated in March alone. Europe has experienced the clearest example of geopolitics accelerating the energy transition. In response to the Russia/Ukraine war and the weaponization of fuel supply, the EU launched the REPowerEU initiative with the goal to phase out and eventually ban the import of fossil fuels from Russia. In April 2026, the commission introduced AccelerateEU, a new package of measures to address rising energy costs and continue reducing reliance on oil and gas, especially amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The plan is to accelerate the transition to secure, affordable, and clean energy.
The energy transition has accelerated, but it is becoming more focused on strategic autonomy and domestic industrial capability.
Asia
According to the World Economic Forum, Asia is the epicenter of the global energy transition, contributing the largest share of global energy demand growth, clean-energy manufacturing, critical mineral processing, and renewable deployment. The energy transition in this part of the world is a complex interplay of several factors such as technology competition and high dependance on imported fossil fuels. For countries such as India, Japan, and South Korea, energy security is a priority since these countries are heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels. India has embarked on an ambitious energy transition journey, targeting 50% of cumulative installed electric power capacity from non-fossil-fuel sources by 2030. The country has also emerged as the world's third-largest renewable energy market, after China and the US, driven by rapid expansion in solar and wind capacity (IEA, 2025). China has spent much of the 21st century building dominance across the clean-energy value chain, from mineral refining to equipment manufacturing, accelerating the adoption of clean energy both domestically and globally.
North America
The US Inflation Reduction Act was passed in 2022 with the aim to invest in a wide range of programs that, among other provisions, incentivize clean energy and carbon management, encourage electrification and efficiency measures, reduce methane emissions, promote domestic supply chains, and address environmental justice concerns.
The US also finds the heavy dependence on China’s clean energy supply chain as a strategic vulnerability. North America's transition is being driven by a desire to build domestic industrial capacity, secure critical mineral supply chains, and maintain technological leadership.
Consequently, geopolitical tensions have become a major accelerator of investment in batteries, hydrogen, carbon capture, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing, while simultaneously reinforcing the importance of oil, gas, and LNG as strategic energy assets.
South America
Latin America is entering a major geopolitical and economic realignment following geopolitical changes. The region is a global leader in renewable electricity generation, producing roughly 65% of its electricity from clean energy sources—nearly double the global average (World Economic Forum, 2025). However, this advantage is increasingly under threat from rising electricity demand, rapid urbanization, aging infrastructure, climate-related stress, and insufficient investment in modern energy systems. The region remains heavily dependent on hydropower, which accounts for around 40% of electricity generation, making energy security vulnerable to prolonged droughts, extreme weather events, and changing rainfall patterns (Council of Foreign Relations, 2026). Clean-energy investment in the region continues to lag behind fossil- fuel spending, creating a significant financing gap that threatens long-term decarbonization goals and energy security. Substantially higher levels of investment will be required over the coming decade to modernize grids, diversify generation sources, and meet national climate commitments.
As global competition for critical minerals, clean energy technologies, and resilient supply chains intensifies, Latin America is emerging as a strategically important region due to its abundant reserves of lithium, copper, and other resources essential for the low-carbon economy. National energy policies that focus solely on resource extraction may not fully capture the long-term value of the energy transition. Instead, sustained investment in grid modernization, renewable energy deployment, infrastructure resilience, and regional energy integration will be critical to strengthening energy security, attracting investment, and supporting sustainable economic growth across the region.
Africa
Africa faces a unique energy transition challenge: it must expand access to affordable and reliable energy while simultaneously pursuing climate and sustainability goals. According to the IEA, more than 600 million people across Africa still lack access to electricity, while nearly 900 million rely on traditional biomass fuels for cooking, making energy access one of the continent's most pressing development priorities. At the same time, Africa contributes less than 4% of global GHG emissions yet remains among the region’s most vulnerable to climate-related impacts such as droughts, floods, and food insecurity (Bomi Fagbemi 2025).
Africa's energy transition cannot be viewed solely through the lens of decarbonization; rather, it must balance economic growth, industrialization, poverty reduction, and energy security with the gradual deployment of renewable energy technologies.
The transition must be just and sustainable in which fossil fuels continue to play a transitional role while renewable energy capacity is rapidly expanded. Africa possesses some of the world's largest untapped renewable energy resources, including significant solar, wind, hydroelectric, and geothermal potential, yet investment levels remain far below what is required to meet future demand. However, financing costs, infrastructure deficits, weak transmission networks, and limited access to capital remain major barriers to deployment, while supporting long-term sustainability objectives (Onoja Okojokwu-du et al., 2025).
Middle East
The Middle East is on a unique path, heavily investing in clean energy while maintaining its position as a global oil and gas exporter, which remains central to several national economies in the region. Despite recent progress in green initiatives, the region remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels, which accounted for 96% of energy supply in 2024. The region is also projected to hold the largest share of global oil and gas demand by 2060, at about 21% (DNV Energy Transition Outlook 2025).
A report from Wood Mackenzie summarized this aptly, stating, "Middle Eastern countries’ emission reduction ambitions depend on two factors: their reliance on hydrocarbon revenue and how their resources compare with those of other producers." For example, Oman is pushing hard into hydrogen, setting some of the region’s most ambitious targets and building supporting infrastructure due to its declining reserves.
Across the Gulf Cooperation Council, energy transition strategies vary significantly in ambition and feasibility. The Middle East leads the way with an ambitious 2050 net-zero target, supported by major investments in renewable energy and nuclear power, such as the Barakah plant located in the Al Dhafra region of Abu Dhabi. Saudi Arabia follows with a 2060 goal and large-scale renewable tenders. Qatar has taken a more gradual approach, focusing on emissions reductions tied to its expanding LNG sector and targeted solar development. This transition remains uneven, with economic, political, and technological hurdles continuing to shape the region’s climate trajectory.
Infrastructure: Reutilization, Upgrading, and Storage
The conversation about energy transition is often ruled by policies, technological innovation, and market forces, even if its success depends on physical infrastructure such as power grids, pipelines, storage systems, ports, and industrial facilities. These elements form the backbone of energy systems and act both as constraints and enablers in the shift toward decarbonization.
A major challenge lies in the inherited infrastructure built around fossil fuels. Existing energy systems have been optimized for extracting, transporting, and consuming oil, gas, and coal. Repurposing or decommissioning these assets is technically complex and economically costly. For example, existing gas ducts can handle up to 20% of hydrogen blended with natural gas, while CO2 must be dehydrated to avoid corrosion (Parformak 2021). Given the urgency of climate targets and the long timelines required for infrastructure projects, many midstream assets risk becoming stranded. For this reason, investments should prioritize flexible and adaptable solutions, such as LNG and liquid petroleum gas technologies, rather than rigid, nonredeemable assets (Allen and Coffin 2025).
At the same time, electrification is placing increasing pressure on existing power grids. Existing grids were designed for centralized generation, where large power plants deliver electricity to consumers. In contrast, renewable energy sources like wind and solar introduce decentralized and variable generation, enabling some consumers to become prosumers by generating their own electricity. This shift requires significant upgrades in transmission and distribution systems, including the adoption of smart grids, digital monitoring, and improved resilience.
The transition also introduces interconnected challenges related to supply chains. Many critical raw materials needed for clean technologies are geographically concentrated, creating risks of geopolitical dependency and supply disruption. For example, China provides 100% of the EU’s supply of heavy rare earth elements (European Commission 2025). Expanding extraction and refining capacity can generate environmental and social impacts, such as land degradation, water pollution, and harm to local communities. In addition, there are bottlenecks in processing and manufacturing, as the industrial ecosystems required to transform raw materials into usable components are not yet fully developed. Circularity remains another unresolved issue, with low recycling rates and limited integration of reuse and recovery into infrastructure design (IEA 2024).
Intermittency is another key concern. Renewable energy sources are inherently variable, leading to mismatches between supply and demand. Addressing this requires large-scale energy storage solutions, including batteries, pumped hydro, and emerging technologies such as hydrogen and gravitational storage. However, upscaling these systems demands new infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and investment models. Integrating storage into existing systems is challenging but offers major benefits, including greater grid flexibility and reduced reliance on fossil-fuel backup (Kolaczkowski and Sen 2024).
At the same time, the transition presents significant opportunities. Digitalization is transforming infrastructure design and operation. Smart grids supported by real-time data and artificial intelligence can improve efficiency and reliability. Tools such as predictive maintenance and digital twins help extend asset lifespans and reduce operational costs, making the transition more economically viable.
Repurposing existing infrastructure is another promising avenue. Depleted oil and gas reservoirs can be used for CCS, while pipeline networks can be adapted to transport low-carbon fuels. These approaches may reduce costs and leverage existing expertise within the energy sector.
Infrastructure represents both a bottleneck and a catalyst for energy transition, shaping what is technically feasible, economically viable, and socially acceptable. While the challenges are significant, the opportunities are equally substantial.
Impact: Behavior and Inertia
The real impact of the energy transition should be measured by its ability to achieve sustained and verifiable reductions in CO2 emissions over time, rather than relying solely on headline indicators such as renewable capacity or electric vehicle adoption. While the global rollout of clean technologies is accelerating, the overall emissions outcome depends on the broader energy system in which these technologies operate. Electrification of transport, heating, and industry, for example, can significantly cut direct emissions only if the electricity used comes from low-carbon sources. In regions where fossil fuels still dominate power generation, electrification may simply shift emissions upstream instead of eliminating them (Islam, Ghish, and Su 2026). Moreover, life-cycle emissions—from manufacturing batteries, building infrastructure, and decommissioning old systems—add further complexity to assessing the true environmental impact.
Another critical factor is the inertia of existing capital stocks. Energy systems rely on long-lived assets such as power plants, buildings, and vehicles, which often remain in use for decades. This results in a slow turnover of carbon-intensive infrastructure, meaning emissions reductions occur gradually over extended periods. Consequently, there is often a time lag between policy commitments and measurable climate benefits. This delay highlights the importance of early action: postponing change locks in future emissions, while faster deployment of low-carbon solutions accelerates cumulative reductions.
The behavioral dimension also plays a crucial role in shaping the speed and effectiveness of the transition. The adoption of technologies like electric vehicles, heat pumps, and induction heating depends not only on their availability but also on consumer decision-making. Many households prioritize short-term costs over long-term savings, slowing adoption even when low-carbon options are economically advantageous over time. Perceived risks, limited information, and restricted access to financing further hinder uptake. In addition, replacement cycles matter: consumers often wait until existing equipment reaches the end of its life before switching, prolonging reliance on high-emission technologies.
However, behavior can also become a powerful driver of change when supported by well-designed policies. Financial incentives, such as subsidies or tax credits, can lower initial costs, while carbon pricing helps reflect the true environmental cost of emissions, making cleaner alternatives more competitive. Non-financial measures—such as improved infrastructure, regulatory standards, and public awareness campaigns—can reduce barriers and increase social acceptance (Taamneh and Makahleh 2025). As adoption increases, economies of scale and network effects tend to lower costs and normalize new technologies, further accelerating the transition.
Ultimately, the true impact of the energy transition lies in its cumulative effect on emissions over time. This impact is shaped by the interaction between technological progress, policy frameworks, and human behavior. Achieving meaningful and timely emissions reductions requires not only scaling up clean technologies but also aligning incentives, reducing barriers, and encouraging faster adoption across society.
For Further Reading
Africa's Green Energy Transition by B. Fagbemi, The Africa Center.
Balancing Fossil Fuels and Renewables: Pathways for a Just and Sustainable Energy Transition in Africa by J. Okojokwu-du, R. Abioye, S. Ihwughwavwe, et al.
Pipeline Transportation of Hydrogen: Regulation, Research, and Policy by P. Parfomak, Library of Congress.
Unburnable Carbon: Ten Years On by T. Allen and M. Coffin, Carbon Tracker.
Explainer: The Role of Energy Storage Technologies in the Energy Transition by M. Kolaczkowski, World Economic Forum.
The Prospects of Adopting Electric Vehicles in Urban Contexts: A Systematic Review of Literature by M. Taamneh, Yarmouk University, and H. Makahleh, University of Birmingham.
Mrigya Fogat is a data scientist at Halliburton based in Malaysia. She graduated with a degree in petroleum engineering from Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Petroleum Technology (RGIPT) and was awarded the institute and president’s gold medals. In her present role, she works by integrating her core subject knowledge and data science to come up with efficient and novel solutions for challenges faced in the energy industry. Fogat is an active member of SPE and was the president of the SPE student chapter at RGIPT. She is passionate about affordable, accessible, and sustainable energy.
Piergiuseppe Fiore, SPE, is a reservoir engineer at Eni. He is part of the Reservoir Management Department, working on integrated asset modeling. Previously, he worked on injectivity issues, improved oil recovery, and CCS. He has also specialized in CFD simulations, publishing several articles. Fiore is an active member of SPE and he is the YP Chairperson of SPE Italian Section. He holds an MSc degree in chemical engineering from the University of Calabria and a second-level master’s in petroleum engineering at Polytechnic of Turin.