Globally, nations and organizations are setting targets to achieve net zero carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions (NZE). For many, the target is to reach NZE by 2050. So, in just over 25 years, those nations and organizations need to rethink and deliver on how they generate, store, transmit, distribute, and use energy.
Delivering a paradigm-shifted energy system that will look different from the one that exists in the early 2020s is the challenge of our time. For comparison, the first industrial revolution that introduced steam and water power took over a century. If we look forward to 2050, both crude oil and natural gas are expected to remain a significant energy vector, although their demand is forecast to decline. There will be other energy vectors and multiple pathways, such as hydrogen and renewable crudes, as well as increased electrification across the value chain. If we reflect on the changes that have occurred in the energy industry over the past 25 years, however, such as the rise of shale gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), biofuels, and electrification, these have been at a much smaller scale, more localized, and not necessarily affecting the same aspect of the energy system.
The energy transition journey toward net zero is expected to be chaotic as the energy system is disrupted with multiple opportunities being adopted and effects occurring in parallel. One can draw analogies with how peer-accepted science undergoes a paradigm shift when the status quo of knowledge becomes challenged, with a period of chaotic uncertainty until a new status quo is established. What is certain is that, during the energy transition, the energy industry will undergo significant changes, which will require the industry to rapidly adapt to both technological advancements and the challenges posed by climate change. Initially, abatement is expected to use existing technologies combined with demand-side measures. Beyond 2030, abatement will require application of innovative technologies at scale, which introduces a need for management of change. Moreover, the pace of change will need to quicken to deliver the required annual rate of transformation towards NZE and to achieve a 1.5°C global temperature rise above preindustrial levels.
The opportunities introduced by each industrial revolution brings new hazards, and the same applies to the opportunities introduced by the energy transition. The challenge is to ensure that changes to major accident hazards are properly managed, whether the changes occur by adapting conventional industry operations to lower carbon or by introducing innovative technologies. Effective process safety management (PSM) is required to protect people and the environment, and this prompts several questions:
- What are the potential process safety effects of the energy transition?
- Are PSM principles applicable to the energy transition, and, if so, what are the priorities?
- Are process safety standards and practices ready for the energy transition (both company standards and practices and those developed by industry collaborative organizations or regulators)?
- What can be expected for future regulation of lower carbon businesses?