In 2026, what is the state of hydraulic fracture modeling, and where are we headed?
Fracture modeling is a core part of the engineering design workflow across much of the industry, both for conventionals and unconventionals. In unconventionals, fracture optimization with infill-well drilling remains a key focus. Fracture modeling continues to be used to evaluate and design novel applications. There is growing activity toward integrating fracture modeling with practical operational constraints. Real-time fracture optimization still has not taken off fully but remains an area of activity. Integration with diagnostics and other forms of field-data collection are crucial to success.
In shale, the future is expected to be increasingly driven by new plays outside North America and enhanced oil recovery. Fracture modeling will be integral for both. When developing new plays, designs are less mature, and fracture modeling helps integrate data, evaluate alternatives, and shorten the learning curve. With enhanced oil recovery, either from surfactant or miscible injection, there is a merging of fracture modeling and reservoir engineering, because the fracture and reservoir closely affect each other.
Enhanced geothermal systems have seen an explosion of interest in recent years, and this is another area where fracture modeling is closely linked with long-term modeling and reservoir engineering.
As I review papers, one quibble would be that I wish more authors provided a detailed technical description of their approach. Often, it is unclear which equations were set up and solved, and so it is difficult to evaluate the reported results. Correspondingly, we see relatively fewer papers on the science of how to perform fracture modeling itself. There are notable exceptions, such as the innovative work being done on phase field modeling.
It is too early to say how advances in artificial intelligence will affect fracture modeling. I hope we see more papers on this topic in the coming years.
Summarized Papers
SPE 230625 Simulation-Driven Optimization of Simultaneous Frac-Execution Strategies: Tradeoff Analysis of Two- and Three-Well Simul-Frac, Cost Models, Operational Efficiency, Flow Rates, and Stage Lengths by Brandon Eidson, PrePad, et al.
SPE 230635 Optimizing Infill-Well Development in Shale Assets With High-Fidelity Modeling of Fracture-Driven Interactions by Osama Hasan Khan, SLB, et al.
SPE 231225 Modeling Parent/Child Effect in Vaca Muerta To Quantify the Impact of Infill Timing, Well Spacing, and Completion Design on Child Performance by Agustin Garbino, ResFrac, et al.
Recommended Additional Reading
SPE 226451 Enhancing Hydraulic Fracturing Success: A Comprehensive Framework for Improved Flow-Rate Prediction and Optimized Stage Planning for Tight Reservoirs by S. Worapotpisan, PTTEP, et al.
SPE 229544 Productivity Impairment Caused by Placement of Micro-Sized Proppants in Microfractures: How by Huifeng Liu, CNPC, et al.
SPE 228247 A Hybrid Workflow for Fracture-Geometry Characterization: Forward Propagation Modeling Integrated With In-Well DAS Data Interpretation by Jin Tang, PetroChina, et al.
Mark McClure, SPE, is the CEO of ResFrac, which he established in 2015 to help operators maximize value through the application of advanced geomechanics and reservoir simulation. Before founding ResFrac, he was an assistant professor at The University of Texas at Austin in the Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering. McClure holds a BS degree in chemical engineering, an MS degree in petroleum engineering and a PhD degree in energy resources engineering from Stanford University.