The focus on upstream mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in Southeast Asia is shifting from operators making noncore exits to strategic entry.
According to Rystad Energy research released on 5 October, the conversation has moved from which international oil companies are leaving Southeast Asia to who is buying their way in.
Dealmaking between 2020 to 2024 was dominated by majors trimming late-life positions and the expiration of production-sharing contracts (PSCs), the analyst firm said. In 2025, upstream assets worth around $6.7 billion changed hands.
The regional market currently has $9.6 billion in upstream assets on offer, split almost evenly between energy majors ($3.6 billion) and independents ($3.7 billion). National oil companies (NOCs) account for another $1.4 billion, with a handful of smaller sellers making up the remainder.
According to Rystad, what separates the groups is the growth ambition behind the offerings. Majors are selling assets in countries with limited upside to focus on a few core basins while entering frontier acreage through partnerships that share risk. Independents, sitting on recent pre-final investment decision (FID) discoveries such as Harbor Energy's Andaman portfolio, need capital beyond a single balance sheet to reach FID. Rystad described NOCs as the most selective of the three groups, as they have built up domestic portfolios that give them flexibility to rationalize late-life assets at home while eyeing entry elsewhere.
As competition for assets increases, recent deals have reached $9.80/BOE for development assets and more than $3.00/BOE for pre-FID resources, compared with 6-year averages of $6–7/BOE and $1.50/BOE, respectively, according to Rystad.
Prateek Pandey, head of APAC oil and gas research at Rystad, said in a press release that growth is likely to be the common theme in nearly every portfolio on the Southeast Asia market.
“The next 18 months will be shaped by three things: the conversion of pre-FID opportunities into mega M&A deals; the trajectory of premiums on producing assets; and the continued evolution of deal structures into strategic partnerships. For buyers, capital alone won't win the next round. The premium a bidder can justify will come down to the value creation plan behind the offer,” he said.
Acquisition opportunities exist in nearly 45 PSCs across 12 provinces. They include 2.8 billion BOE of net resources and about 145,000 BOEPD of production. But, Rystad said, 72% of the resources have yet to reach FID, and only 18% are producing. Sarawak, the Andaman Sea, and the Kutei Basin hold the region’s largest pre-FID gas positions, which are Lang Lebah, Harbour's Andaman II and South Andaman, and Eni's Kutei hub. Vietnam's Ken Bau, which holds 3.7 Tcf of recoverable resources, is the single largest resource on offer. The firm views the asset as more likely to be farmed down than directly sold, as it has remained between appraisal and development for years.
Of the production assets available, Rystad said 17 PSCs are competing for purchase, commanding a premium of nearly $8.00/BOE.
Rystad views Chevron’s stake in the North Malay Basin, the second-largest producing gas block in Peninsular Malaysia, as the standout opportunity on offer and a marker of broader retreat. Chevron's Southeast Asian resource base has fallen from nearly 3 billion BOE in 2020 to around 300 million BOE today. The firm said that opens up opportunities for NOCs and expects Petronas to lead the next wave of domestic divestments, followed by Pertamina. Rystad believes state-linked players such as Petros in Sarawak, SMJ Energy in Sabah, and Terengganu Petroleum in Peninsular Malaysia will emerge as the natural buyers in their respective home basins.
Even as optimism builds across the region, two consecutive dry wells in Eni's Vietnamese portfolio have added commercial pressure on Ken Bau, making a farm-out with partner Essar more likely than a direct sale. Abadi LNG could follow a similar path, Rystad said. After its FID announcement, Inpex may look to farm down part of its interest to spread development capital, adding another entrant to the region's already crowded buyer list.