Africa is expected to lead global high-impact exploration drilling this year, accounting for about 40% of the 42 high-impact wells planned worldwide, according to a report published on 28 January by Rystad Energy. Additionally, nearly all onshore high-impact drilling campaigns planned for 2026 are expected to take place in Africa, with the exception of a recently announced frontier exploration project offshore Greenland.
The Oslo-based consultancy said most of the activity is expected to take place in the Orange Basin in southern Africa and the Gulf of Guinea offshore West Africa. Rystad categorizes high-impact wells by assessing prospect size, basin-opening potential in frontier or emerging areas, and their strategic relevance to operators.
“What we are seeing in 2026 is a clear shift in where operators are willing to deploy capital,” said Aatisha Mahajan, head of exploration at Rystad. “Ultra-deepwater and frontier plays remain capital-intensive, but they also offer scale and material upside at a time when conventional opportunities are increasingly limited. Africa stands out because it still combines geological potential with the prospect of large, commercially meaningful discoveries, particularly for operators looking to secure long-life resources in a tightening global supply environment.”
While Nigeria was not highlighted by Rystad, Africa’s largest liquids producer is also moving to reposition itself for renewed upstream activity. Nigeria, which launched its delayed 2025 licensing round last month, has moved to lower financial barriers to entry by cutting signature bonus requirements as part of broader efforts to revive exploration.
Nigeria is seeking to overcome years of upstream underinvestment and security challenges, with production targets set at 2.7 million B/D by 2027 and 3 million B/D by 2030, up from about 1.71 million B/D today.
Under the revised terms, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) lowered the required signature bonus for each awarded block to a range of $3 million to $7 million, down from $10 million in the 2024 round and nearly $200 million in earlier licensing rounds. Officials said during a webinar with potential investors on 28 January that the revised structure is intended to prioritize technical capability and accelerate production timelines.
The regulator recently emphasized that the licensing round will follow the same anti-corruption oversight framework used in the 2024 bid round, including a fully digital process for data access and bid submissions.
The NUPRC is offering 50 oil and gas blocks in the round, including 15 onshore areas, 19 shallow-water blocks, 15 frontier basin licenses, and one deepwater block. Chevron said in December that it plans to participate in the round, while TotalEnergies has also expressed interest.
The licensing announcement followed news that a Chevron-operated joint venture with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) completed the Awodi-07 appraisal and exploration well in the shallow offshore western Niger Delta.
Drilling began in late November and concluded in mid-December. NNPC said the well was safely secured following testing, logging, and data acquisition, confirming the presence of hydrocarbons across multiple reservoir zones.
No production rates or resource estimates were shared, but the company described the results as “highly encouraging.” Under the joint venture structure, Chevron holds a 40% interest, while NNPC owns the remaining 60%.
Elsewhere on the continent, Libyan officials said on 24 January that they had signed a $20-billion agreement with TotalEnergies and ConocoPhillips to increase production from assets currently producing about 370,000 BOE/D. TotalEnergies said the deal is expected to include further development of the North Gialo field, with potential additions of up to 100,000 BOE/D.
In recent months, analyst attention has increasingly turned to Africa’s broader upstream potential. In a November report, Wood Mackenzie estimated that only about one-third of the continent’s discovered hydrocarbon resources have been commercialized. While existing activity is expected to generate roughly $109 billion per year in government revenues, the scale of the undeveloped resource base highlights how much potential value remains unrealized.
