No industry event reflects the evolution and progress of offshore oil and gas as closely as the Offshore Technology Conference (OTC). And as the industry gathering returns to the NRG Center in Houston from 4–7 May, the sector it represents looks a lot different from when attendees first walked the exhibit floor in 1969.
A paper synopsized in JPT in 1969 (SPE 2488) notes that back then, global offshore oil production totaled around 6.5 million B/D out of a global total of 38 million B/D. Today, the offshore sector produces an estimated 28.1 million B/D out of the global total of 105.4 million.
The growth and sustainability of offshore production have come as the industry has moved beyond shallow-water and shelf developments to an expanding portfolio of deepwater installations, led by projects offshore the US, Guyana, and Brazil. Shelf projects nonetheless still account for almost two-thirds of offshore supply, or 17.6 million B/D, while deepwater production stands at almost 10.5 million B/D.
These recently updated figures are drawn from a new white paper by Rystad Energy, released as part of the Norwegian consultancy’s strategic partnership with OTC. The latest annual outlook report is one of several efforts through which Rystad and OTC are working to help the technical community identify the trends and developments driving offshore activity.
A major theme of this year’s report, which can be accessed here, is the role the offshore sector needs to play in ensuring that there will be enough energy to fuel the global economy into the year 2050. Rystad highlights a potential “production gap” between current production trends and projected demand.
Across the scenarios Rystad lays out, which vary by the speed of alternative energy adoption rates, a production shortfall remains “substantial in all cases.”
In its slowest projection for the energy transition, the world needs about 640 billion bbl of oil by 2050. The base case and fast transition scenarios still require 540 billion and 435 billion bbl of new supply, respectively.
The challenge for the offshore sector in helping meet such demand scenarios is hard to overstate. According to Rystad, the global offshore portfolio averages a 6% decline rate, which means about 1.7 million B/D of new supply must be sanctioned annually—and that’s only to hold offshore output where it is today.
The world has recently seen two historic supply crunches that should serve as reminders for what may happen if the upstream industry is unable to keep up.
The first followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, after which its oil and gas exports were subjected to sweeping international sanctions. The second emerged only weeks ago with the US-Israeli led air campaign against Iran. In response, Iran threatened the safe passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global oil flows.
These geopolitical shocks have confirmed how delicate our supply lines are and the economic consequences when they are disrupted.
Looking ahead, meeting future energy security needs will depend on the upstream industry’s ability to deliver economic barrels. This requirement plays to the offshore sector’s strength as a source of low lifting-cost production.
Rystad points out that breakeven costs for Brazil’s pre-salt reservoirs range from about $35 to $40/bbl. It is estimated that offshore Guyana’s breakeven is averaging around $30/bbl, while many projects in the US Gulf of Mexico and offshore Norway are as low as $35/bbl.
Expanding the supply of low-cost barrels in these regions and elsewhere will depend on continued advances in technology and project execution. Industry gatherings such as OTC play a critical role in that effort by enabling the exchange of technical knowledge and operational best practices, and supporting their application in the field.
At OTC 2026, attendees from over 100 countries will have access to more than 370 technical presentations and over 1,100 exhibitors showcasing critical equipment and emerging technologies. The conference program also features 13 panel sessions, including:
4 May
- Subsea Tiebacks, Increased Production, Lower Costs & Risks, Greater Optionality
- Innovation in Offshore Industry—Panel with Technology Executive Leadership
- Engineering the Future of Deep-Seabed Mining: Collection, Transport, and Processing
- The Future of Offshore Wind: What Direction Will It Blow?
5 May
- Equatorial Margin—From Exploration Vision to Regional Energy Opportunity
- Offshore HPHT: Aligning Technical Excellence with Business Strategy
- CCUS—Gathering Steam or Stalling?
- Decade of Guyana: Rapid Success Fuels Rapid Transformation
6 May
- The 40-Year Evolution of Deepwater Floating Production Platforms in the Gulf of America
- From Digital Tools to Full Value: Real-World Lessons in Offshore Security, Safety, and Operational Efficiency
- Bridging the Gap for Traditional Hydrocarbons to Expand Into Geothermal
7 May
- Strengthening America’s Maritime Energy Transportation Future (LNG)
- Strength in Collaboration: How the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) Delivered a First-of-Its-Kind LNG Development
OTC will also welcome the President of the Co‑operative Republic of Guyana, Dr. Mohamed Irfaan Ali, whose remarks will open the conference during the opening ceremony on Monday, 4 May. His participation reflects Guyana’s expanding role as a supplier of affordable energy and OTC’s position as an international forum that brings together government officials, industry leaders, engineers, equipment manufacturers, and technology developers.
Those interested in being a part of these discussions and learning more about how the offshore sector is preparing itself to address future challenges are encouraged to register now.
