After nearly 60 years, the UAE will exit the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC and OPEC+) effective 1 May 2026, citing its long-term strategic and economic vision and an evolving energy profile driven by accelerated investment in domestic energy production and a desire for greater flexibility in global oil markets.
UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei announced the decision in a statement carried by the Emirates’ official WAM news agency on 28 April, noting that the country’s exit from the cartel controlling half of global oil production “reinforces (the UAE’s) commitment to a responsible, reliable, and forward-looking role in global energy markets.”
In a separate posting on X (formerly Twitter), Al Mazrouei wrote, “The UAE’s decision to exit (OPEC) reflects a policy-driven evolution aligned with long-term market fundamentals.
“We thank OPEC and its member countries for decades of constructive cooperation. We remain committed to energy security by providing reliable, responsible, and lower-carbon supply, while supporting stable global markets.”
Abu Dhabi originally joined OPEC in 1967. OPEC membership transferred to the newly formed UAE in 1971.
National Strategy Takes Priority Over Cartel Constraints
As OPEC’s second-largest oil producer so far in 2026—behind Saudi Arabia and ahead of Iran—the UAE produced 3.31 million to 3.6 million B/D in January and 3.64 million B/D in February, according to the Inernational Energy Agency.
Freed from cartel constraints that had limited the UAE’s production to around 3 million B/D on average over the past 10 years, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) can now focus on boosting production toward its publicly stated target of 5 million B/D by 2027, a goal it originally set for 2030 before bringing it forward by 3 years.
“It is a very clever moment to do it now when there is an oil shortage,” Kingsmill Bond, director of the UK nonprofit energy think tank Ember, told Al Jazeera. “The UAE … is preparing for a world after the war when oil is in decline and OPEC’s power to maintain control and discipline will consequently be weaker; it’s a very rational move on their part.” His remarks were made in the context of wartime logistics constraints and supply disruptions rather than a structural global supply collapse.
Redefining Sovereignty and Supply
In the WAM announcement, the UAE oil ministry stressed that “a stable global energy system depends on flexible, reliable, and affordable supply” and that the decision to leave OPEC was “policy-driven.”
"OPEC and OPEC+ have only ever been as strong as the members' willingness to hold barrels back from the market, and the UAE was one of those,” Rystad Energy’s head of geopolitcal analysis Jorge León, said in a briefing note.
He said, “Losing a member with 4.8 million B/D of capacity, and the ambition to produce more, takes a real tool out of the group's hands. With demand nearing a peak, the calculation for producers with low-cost barrels is changing fast, and waiting your turn inside a quota system starts to look like leaving money on the table.”
“Saudi Arabia is now left doing more of the heavy lifting on price stability, and the market loses one of the few shock absorbers it had left," León said.
The International Energy Agency reported that OPEC's share of global oil output fell to 44% in March, down from nearly 48% in February. The Iran war is expected to drive further declines when April data is reported, while May will begin to reflect the effects of UAE’s departure, Reuters noted.
Rystad’s León noted that Saudi Arabia and the UAE stand out within OPEC for having sufficient spare capacity to influence markets and respond to supply shocks.
Long-term, a structurally weaker OPEC with the UAE’s capacity out of play, will struggle to stabilize prices by managing supply, he said. Supply-side management works best in addressing temporary disruptions when production can be shifted across time. But in a world in which oil demand has peaked and is now in decline, producers with spare capacity may choose to monetize reserves and protect market share instead of limiting production, León explained, adding that the UAE may adopt this strategy given its 4.8 million B/D capacity and ability to significantly increase output.
This leaves Saudi Arabia to carry a larger share of supply-side adjustments and raises prospects for more volatile oil markets, he said.
