In 2026, Alaska’s crude oil production is expected to rise for the first time in decades, supported by renewed political momentum behind resource development, including efforts to meet growing natural gas demand while advancing LNG export infrastructure aimed at Asian markets.
Though Alaska produced its first commercial oil in 1902 near Katalla, a ghost town today 47 miles southeast of Cordova, the US’s forty-ninth state only joined the ranks of major oil and gas producers in 1968 with the discovery of the North Slope’s Prudhoe Bay oil field, the largest oil field in North America.
The 1973 Arab oil embargo ignited the political will to build the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System in 1977 to connect remote North Slope oil fields to the port in Valdez. As ConocoPhillips’ CEO Ryan Lance remarked during a November 2025 earnings call, “Alaska is (has always been) about oil.”
Next year, however, could herald the start of a new evolution in Alaska’s oil and gas journey not seen since the 1970s, particularly if projects such as Alaska LNG, which has been debated for more than a decade, are finally declared financially feasible.
Alaska’s Rebound
Two new North Slope developments are driving Alaska’s expected 13% (55,000 B/D) rise in oil production in 2026—the largest annual increase since the 1980s as the state tops 477,000 B/D, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported in November (Fig. 1).
These are ConocoPhillips’ 29-well Nuna project, which produced first oil in December 2024 and targets 20,000 B/D at peak, and the 51% Santos-owned and operated Pikka project (49% Repsol), targeting 80,000 B/D at peak (20% of Alaska’s total 2025 production) from 45 wells by mid-2026.
Nuna’s 7,000 B/D output in August 2025 offset existing production declines, the EIA said, while Santos noted in its Q3 2025 financial report that
- Pikka phase 1 is more than 95% complete, with 22 wells drilled as of the end of Q3 2025, including a company-record extended-reach well of 8,200 m, and infrastructure tied back to existing Kuparuk processing facilities.
- 120 miles of pipeline are ready for service, and the seawater treatment plant and final processing modules are being commissioned to deliver first oil in Q1 2026.
ConocoPhillips has been Alaska’s dominant oil producer in 2025 with 195,000 B/D flowing from major production hubs at Prudhoe Bay (36% ConocoPhillips interest), the western North Slope, and the Kuparuk River Unit (KRU) fields. Part of the KRU, Nuna, contributes around 20,000 B/D to the company’s current production reports.
Enhanced oil recovery specialists Hilcorp Energy ranks second after its 2024 acquisition of Eni’s two producing shallow-water assets, Nikaitchuq and Oooguruk, in the Beaufort Sea, which made the Houston-based company the North Slope’s largest offshore oil producer at 150,000 B/D, according to the EIA.
Ranked third with a significant North Slope presence, ExxonMobil holds the largest position in Alaska’s discovered natural gas resources.
Willow Stays on Track Despite Inflation Hit
Nearly 50% complete and with first oil expected in early 2029, ConocoPhillips’ Willow project is Alaska’s largest new oil development in more than 30 years, according to the US Department of the Interior.
