The inaugural Energy, Economics, and Evaluation Symposium (E3S), held on 14 January 2026 at the Dallas Federal Reserve’s Houston Branch, brought together nearly 150 industry leaders, policymakers, economists, and students around a shared recognition: the forces shaping today’s energy outcomes extend far beyond commodity prices. Titled “Powering the Energy Future,” the event underscored a new landscape defined by interconnected constraints—from technology costs and efficiency requirements to credit availability, permitting hurdles, power and supply chain resilience.
E3S was organized by the SPE Asset Management Technical Section and was cohosted by SPE, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and the United States Association for Energy Economics.
From Price Signals to Constraint Management
For decades, energy investment decisions were often framed around oil and gas price expectations. While prices remain an important driver, E3S highlighted how they now sit within a much tighter set of non-price constraints. Capital may be available, but not on historical terms. Resources may be present, but may not be developed within required policy, regulatory, or timeline windows. Energy demand may be robust, but power systems and supporting infrastructure may not scale fast enough to meet it.
The Dallas Fed Perspective: Real-Time Signals Matter
The symposium opened with a panel from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, emphasizing why direct industry engagement has become critical for identifying trends that matter. Official data sets remain robust but lag reality and expectations. In fast-moving energy markets, they often miss how firms are budgeting, adjusting capital programs, or responding to changing financial, regulatory, or supply chain environments.
Dallas Fed survey-based intelligence has, therefore, become a vital early indicator. Questions on budgeted oil prices, expected capital spending, and hiring plans provide forward-looking insight well before they appear in official data. Panelists stressed, however, that the usefulness of these surveys depends on honest participation. Persistent pessimism or optimism driven by personal motivations in survey responses can distort true signals impacting decision-making.
The panel also highlighted the role of NYMEX strip pricing. Even when operators do not plan activities to the NYMEX forward curve, lenders frequently do. This has made the strip a de facto baseline for reserve-based lending and credit availability. Projects that deviate from these assumptions face greater scrutiny, reinforcing the need for transparent and defensible planning cases.
Resilience in an Uncertain World
The Chief Economist Panel shifted the conversation from forecasts to resilience. Rather than debating a single outlook, panelists focused on demand shape and scenario signposts that could shift trajectories over the next 5 years—arguing that near-term demand collapse narratives overlook a far more complex reality.
Competitiveness discipline emerged as a core theme. Panelists emphasized that investments must hold up even under stress cases, with some framing scenarios around oil prices as low as $35/bbl. This approach prioritizes breakevens, durable margins, and operational flexibility.
AI‑driven power demand was acknowledged as meaningful but bounded by physical constraints such as grid capacity, turbine supply, labor availability, and siting challenges. Natural gas was viewed as the practical near‑term bridge fuel, while nuclear was highlighted as the longer-term solution for firm, clean baseload.
Lower 48 Supply: Productivity With Boundaries
Few metrics captured attention as much as productivity gains in the Lower 48. US oil production now exceeds prior peaks with far fewer rigs, driven by longer laterals, advanced drilling and completion technologies, and an increasingly capable supply chain ecosystem.
However, E3S made clear that productivity alone does not remove other constraints. Oilfield service companies have shifted toward margin discipline, creating practical pricing floors that limit supply elasticity in lower-price environments. Infrastructure availability, particularly for natural gas takeaway, further shapes production outcomes and regional price dynamics.
The discussion reinforced a key evaluation shift: type curves can no longer be assessed in isolation. They must now be assessed alongside cost curves, service availability, and execution feasibility. Supply response is no longer dictated only by price and geology.
Policy, Energy Literacy, and Strategic Capacity
Discussions emphasized the importance of energy literacy and realistic framing of the energy transition. Global development remains closely tied to energy availability, requiring systems that balance affordability, reliability, and sustainability simultaneously.
Policy discussions reinforced that energy dominance extends beyond production volumes. Real leverage comes from strategic spare capacity—the ability to respond to disruptions. Supply chains, critical minerals processing, and geopolitical chokepoints increasingly shape project economics and timelines.
Electric Power and Execution Capacity
Electricity availability emerged as a unifying constraint across sessions. Texas was highlighted as a hotspot for data center growth, yet significant uncertainty remains around load trajectories. Beyond AI, rising electricity demand stems from population growth, LNG, and energy operations.
Panelists emphasized that execution capacity—not theoretical demand—is the real constraint. Labor availability, turbine manufacturing limits, transmission buildout, water access, and community response all influence how quickly generation can scale.
What E3S Clarified for Decision-Makers
Across its sessions, E3S consistently translated broad macro narratives into decision-relevant inputs. Credit assumptions, permitting timelines, infrastructure constraints, and supply chain feasibility now shape valuation ranges and risk premiums as much as price expectations.
The message was not that prices have lost relevance, but they increasingly operate within a tightening constraint set. For asset managers, evaluators, and policymakers, understanding and modeling these constraints is now central to resilient decision-making.
EnergyThon – Molecule to Megawatt
The event wrapped up with a student business case competition focused on a gas‑to‑data‑center opportunity. Top students from several universities tackled the “Molecule to Megawatt” challenge, building techno‑economic models for powering next‑generation AI data centers. Teams presented their ideas in a Shark Tank–style pitch for top prizes.
Hitesh Mohan serves as the chairperson of the SPE Asset Management Technical Section. Currently a managing partner and director of energy for CyberWorx Energy LLC, he has more than 30 years of experience in petroleum engineering and public policy consulting, including design, management, and performance of numerous energy markets, infrastructure vulnerability, resiliency logistics studies, gas storage analysis, CCS, AI/cyber governance, and data analytics.
An SPE member and dedicated volunteer for more than 32 years, Mohan has authored numerous SPE publications. He was an SPE Distinguished Lecturer in 2019–2020 and was awarded the 2010 SPE Northeastern North America Regional Service award and 2024 SPE Eastern North America Regional Management award. He holds a B. Tech. in mining machinery from Indian School of Mines and an MS in petroleum engineering from University of Kansas. He is member of the Engineering Honor Society (Tau Beta Pi).