Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) said in a new report that merger and acquisition (M&A) activity outside the US and Canada has remained at historic lows for a second consecutive year. Global deal value totaled about $18 billion in 2025, on par with the previous year. According to the market research firm, last year’s M&A figure sits well below the historical baseline of around $60 billion.
EIR cited a limited number of available high-quality resources and lower oil prices as the chief factors holding back further dealmaking. One region trying to buck the trend is Latin America, which remains attractive to buyers.
“International M&A is being shaped less by appetite and more by availability,” Andrew Dittmar, principal analyst at EIR, said in a statement.
He continued, “With opportunities to buy into high-quality and scalable development projects scarce, majors have pulled back significantly from the M&A market and focused on organic expansion. Independent and private buyers have stepped in to acquire the mature assets and smaller interests these firms are meanwhile shedding.”
EIR points out that Latin America represented half of all known international deal value last year. This activity was driven by the consolidation of assets in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale along with sales in Brazil.
In Argentina, the transactions in 2025 were the most seen since 2014 as international oil companies (IOCs) divested and regional players picked up the properties.
The EIR research note added that this came in spite of Vaca Muerta’s economic viability and that IOCs were leaving because their positions were likely too small to compete with the rest of their global portfolios.
The report said public independents and private producers, such as regional consolidator Vista Energy in the Vaca Muerta, have accounted for 70% of international M&A value since 2024.
NOCs working in Brazil shed offshore assets because of their maturity while shifting investment toward higher-quality deepwater projects.
EIR also said Africa was a “meaningful contributor” to international M&A as oil companies there moved away from mature plays and focused more of their capital on higher-impact projects in the Atlantic margin.
Supermajors have been relatively quiet in recent years, with Chevron’s purchase of Hess Corp. marking one notable exception. Chevron moved to acquire Hess primarily because of the smaller company’s 30% stake in Guyana’s offshore Stabroek Block, which is operated by ExxonMobil and holds more than 11 billion BOE of discovered resources.
Another exception cited by Enverus is TotalEnergies’ asset swap in Namibia’s offshore Orange Basin, which took place last year.
The slowdown in global M&A activity comes as European investors increasingly focus on power and low-carbon developments.
Looking ahead, EIR said US private-equity investment may begin flowing outside the country as the number of domestic opportunities has shrunk in recent years or become less attractive because of high asking prices.
“Valuation metrics disclosed a two-speed market, where weaker near-term crude pricing during 2025, and more deals focused on mature assets or situations involving distressed sellers, reduced production and cash flow metrics,” the EIR research note said, adding that this was especially the case for oil-weighted investment opportunities.
EIR said M&A activity is likely to remain sluggish without farm-down opportunities, partial stake sales, or notable portfolio restructuring to put more attractive deals on the table.
Another factor that could come into play is regulatory clarity in some countries, which EIR said could lead to more transactions. Key drivers would include improved fiscal stability, faster approval cycles, and greater certainty around asset transferability.
The rise in oil prices following geopolitical conflict in the Middle East could add momentum to dealmaking but it also increases volatility. Higher oil prices can boost near-term cash flows and support M&A activity, but the uncertainty involved may also widen bid-ask spreads and have the opposite effect by delaying investment until markets regain a sense of stability.
Dittmar said it is hard to forecast how long the current disruptions to crude supply will last. “But if higher prices prove durable, it will cause a resurgence of interest in expanding global supply, unlocking more development projects and broadening buyer appetite. That ultimately supports stronger and more sustained deal flow,” he said.