US crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to set production records in each of 2019 and 2020, according to projections from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Based on expected production levels at new and existing fields, annual US gulf oil output will increase to 1.9 million b/d in 2019 and 2 million B/D in 2020. The estimates include shut-ins related to Hurricane Barry in July and adjustments for additional hurricane-related shut-ins this year and next.
Although final data are not yet available, EIA estimates output reached 2 million B/D in August.
US gulf producers expect eight new projects to come online in 2019 and four more in 2020. EIA expects these projects to contribute about 44,000 B/D in 2019 and about 190,000 B/D in 2020 as projects ramp up production.
However, EIA expects the US gulf to account for just 15% of total US crude production in 2019 and 2020, down from 23% in 2011, as onshore production growth continues to outpace offshore production growth.
According to EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report, US shale oil production is projected to rise 58,000 B/D in November to just under 9 million B/D.
Expected US Gulf Field Startups 2019–2020
| Field name | Operator | Discovery year | Start |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buckskin | LLOG | 2009 | 2019 |
| Appomattox | Shell | 2010 | 2019 |
| Hadrian North | Occidental Petroleum | 2010 | 2019 |
| Vicksburg A | Shell | 2013 | 2019 |
| Constellation | Occidental Petroleum | 2014 | 2019 |
| Stonefly | LLOG | 2016 | 2019 |
| Nearly Headless Nick | Murphy Oil | 2018 | 2019 |
| Gladden Deep | W&T Offshore | 2019 | 2019 |
| Bulleit | Talos Energy | 1985 | 2020 |
| Atlantis North | BP | 1998 | 2020 |
| Calliope | Murphy Oil | 2017 | 2020 |
| Orlov | Fieldwood Energy | 2019 | 2020 |