LNG

Something New, Something Old: Australia’s Greenfield LNG Projects Grow Capacity While Depleted Wells Drive Decommissioning

Despite a 2.8% drop in LNG exports in 2025 due to lost market share in China, Australia anticipates a 2026 rebound as new North West Shelf capacity comes online. Meanwhile, east coast operators brace for a tsunami of wells entering the decommissioning pipeline and potential energy shortfalls necessitating LNG imports.

The jacket lift system of Allseas Group’s heavy-lift vessel Pioneering Spirit, which in 2027 will go to work for ExxonMobil as decommissioning proceeds to a new phase in Australia’s Bass Strait/Gippsland Basin. Source: Allseas Group.
The jacket lift system of Allseas Group’s heavy-lift vessel <i>Pioneering Spirit</i>, which in 2027 will go to work for ExxonMobil as decommissioning proceeds to a new phase in Australia’s Bass Strait/Gippsland Basin.
Source: Allseas Group.

Is Australia losing its edge as an LNG superpower? In 2025, LNG exports from the “Land Down Under” dropped nearly 3% as the US and Qatar captured a larger share of the Chinese market by bringing new capacity onstream while Australia’s remained flat.

Toppled in 2023 by the US as the world’s top LNG exporter, Australia now ranks third after Qatar.

New facilities and offshore gas fields are coming onstream in Western Australia as it seeks to leverage offshore megaprojects such as Scarborough and the Gorgon expansions to secure regional energy supply under long-term contracts, particularly with Japan and South Korea, where Australia’s share of LNG imports remains high.

Exports, Imports: West vs. East

East Australia tells a different story. Decommissioning is transforming the Bass Strait/Gippsland Basin offshore Victoria, where oil first flowed in 1969. Over the years, the region supplied over 50% of Australia’s crude oil and 40% of the east coast’s gas, according to the government’s National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority (NOPSEMA).

In 2026, Australia’s decommissioning pipeline is forecast to peak at 440 wells or more, up from the 160 wells targeted in 2021. That year, Canberra tightened regulations and established the research not-for-profit Centre of Decommissioning Australia. Its members included National Energy Resources Australia (NERA), BHP Petroleum (since merged with Woodside), Chevron Australia, ExxonMobil’s Esso Australia, Santos, Vermillion, and Woodside.

Although Geoscience Australia reported record production in 2024 of 1,593 PJ, largely from coal-seam gas from Queensland’s Surat and Bowen basins, east Australia’s gas reserves continue to decline.

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