The complete paper presents examples covering both gas and oil fields at different stages that show how estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) and the corresponding range of EUR uncertainty vary over the life of each field. The lesson from these examples is that the range of uncertainty tends to be too narrow, both in the appraisal phase and in the production phase. It is, therefore, important for technical personnel, management, investors, and lenders to keep an open mind and not be guided into overly narrow ranges of uncertainty.
Presentation of Data and Results
This paper outlines three real-life examples of the evolution of EUR estimates over the entire life cycle of a project, focusing on the evolution in the range of EUR uncertainty, and identifies the learnings that can be drawn from these examples. The first and third of the following examples are included in this synopsis.
- Field 1A and 1B are a cluster of dry gas fields.
