Strait of Hormuz

Crude benchmarks spiked amid concerns that the US-Iran ceasefire is collapsing as commercial shipping comes under renewed attack.

Disputes over tanker fees and the ongoing military operation in Lebanon represent potential fault lines for the tentative peace deal.

Expected to be commissioned in 2027, the new pipeline will double the UAE's current capacity of 1.8 million B/D of crude that can be transported beyond the contested waterway.

Analysis from Wood Mackenzie warns that a prolonged closure of the critical waterway would have lasting effects on the global economy and Middle East supply capacity.

Analysts weigh near‑term risks for Middle East oil and gas producers after a tentative 2‑week ceasefire between the US‑Israeli coalition and Iran.

Conflict‑driven price gains may be offset by higher costs, supply‑chain risks, and a limited appetite for new drilling activity.

Members of the International Energy Agency said they would make available 400 million bbl from emergency reserves amid market disruptions.

Drone strikes, refinery shutdowns, tanker disruptions, and halted LNG production have heightened concerns about broader supply risks.

While physical damage to energy infrastructure has so far been limited, analysts caution that a prolonged conflict could drive prices higher even as OPEC+ proceeds with planned incremental supply increases.

A recent episode involving three, allegedly Iranian, vessels and a British-flagged tanker near the Strait of Hormuz is just one of the recent events of this nature. This analysis looks at these events, the threat they pose, and how the strategy to protect oil flow from the Persian Gulf is evolving.