This paper presents approaches for proper risking of uncertain recoverable volumes for an unconventional resource, taking into account the chance of false positives from appraisal-well information. A subjective risk tolerance can be included to respect how aggressive or conservative a company may be in pursuit of a project. A method of recasting production profiles is demonstrated as an improvement over the common method of scaling, or factoring, the initial production rate.
Introduction
Onshore unconventional liquids-shale and gas-shale plays are often referred to as “continuous accumulations” or “resource plays.” The characterization of perceived geologic continuity frames perception of these plays as having little to no risk, to the point that “well manufacturing” is a noncontroversial term used to refer to development of these assets. Exploration-and-production companies often tout a “type well” as an indication of the viability of their assets.
