On 8 July, US President Donald Trump told reporters at a NATO summit in Turkey that, in his view, a tenuous 3-month ceasefire with Iran was “over” and that continued negotiations were a “waste of time.”
The abrupt reversal on both the ceasefire and negotiations came after the US accused Iran of launching attacks against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and subsequently carried out dozens of airstrikes on Iranian targets. Iran, meanwhile, launched several attacks on US allies in the Middle East.
Both sides have repeatedly accused one another of violating the terms of the ceasefire since it was announced on 8 April.
As a result of the renewed conflict, US oil prices rose to $76/bbl on 8 July before falling to around $73/bbl by the close of trading. The European benchmark Brent crude breached the $80/bbl mark before settling near $78/bbl the same day.
Market analysts tracking the conflict and its effect on crude shipments said the breakdown of the ceasefire had an immediate impact.
Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said on 8 July that crude tanker traffic had “essentially stopped” and that the spike in oil prices suggested the market was pricing-in greater risk.
“The Strait of Hormuz ceasefire looks to be over, with reported attacks on commercial vessels triggering a new round of US retaliatory strikes overnight, and President Trump himself declaring the truce ended,” Leon added.
The Rystad analyst also said crude price volatility could become the near-term norm. Even without a sustained disruption to tanker flows, renewed uncertainty over vessel safety, insurance costs, and potential shipping delays could continue to drive price swings.
Maritime data analytics firm Lloyd's List Intelligence also reported that its data showed no transits through the Strait's southern route on 8 July. However, it later noted that some vessels were still moving through the waterway in “dark” mode, a practice in which ships switch off their transponders to avoid detection.
According to figures cited by the Associated Press, Lloyd's List Intelligence recorded at least 576 transits in June, more than double the 233 voyages logged in May. That figure, however, remains well below the more than 3,100 transits recorded in June 2025.
How far the escalation may go remains unclear, as Trump has consistently delivered mixed messages about the direction of US military involvement. Shortly after declaring the ceasefire over, he said the exchange of fire between the US and Iran did not signal a “long-term” military operation.