Costs of repairing war-related damage to liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains, refineries, fuel terminals, and critical gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities across the Persian Gulf could exceed $25 billion, causing disruptions to global supply chains that will linger for years, given a backlog of orders for critical equipment and a lack of qualified personnel on site.
Engineering and construction costs will drive spending, followed by the cost of equipment and materials. But the timing of repairs to damaged or shut-in infrastructure will determine when the Gulf returns to pre-war production capacity, regardless of whether the Strait of Hormuz is open, Rystad Energy reported in a recent analysis (Fig. 1).
The destruction of LNG trains S4 and S6 at Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, for example, triggered force majeure and a 17% capacity reduction, equivalent to about 12.8 mtpa and $20 billion in lost revenue, according to QatarEnergy. The company also reported damage to the Pearl GTL facility, a joint venture with Shell (Fig. 2).
Order Backlogs Building
In the case of LNG trains, a full recovery will take up to 5 years because only three original equipment manufacturers (OEM) supply the large-frame gas turbines required to power LNG main refrigeration compressors. Those OEMs already had backlogs of 2 to 4 years at the start of 2026 because of demand for data center electrification and coal plant requirements, according to Rystad.
“The Gulf region’s recovery will be defined less by financial capital and more by structural constraints,” Audun Martinsen, head of supply chain research at Rystad Energy, said in a 25 March press release. “While some assets may be restored within months, others could remain offline for years.
“Beyond the status of the Strait of Hormuz, every day of damaged or shut-in infrastructure pushes pre-war production capacity further out of reach. Iran’s South Pars offshore field and Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility stand out as particularly concerning cases.
“The scale of damage and long lead times for critical equipment could result in slow recovery at Ras Laffan, while Iran’s legal exclusion from Western supply chains means it will have to rely on Chinese and domestic contractors, which is a technically feasible approach that could be slower and more expensive. Urgent repairs will have to take precedence in place of planned expansion,” Martinsen said.
Bahrain Faces a Different Challenge
The BAPCO Sitra Refinery in neighboring Bahrain was struck twice, damaging two crude distillation units (CDU) and a tank farm, prompting force majeure across group operations. The incident highlights a different challenge: the timing of the damage relative to the asset investment cycle.
The facility had just reached mechanical completion under its $7 billion modernization program in December 2025, with engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractors still on-site finalizing ramp-up obligations when the attacks occurred, according to Rystad.
Because the newly commissioned CDU block was destroyed soon after first production, the new capacity intended to create revenue to pay back the investment will be delayed. Moreover, international contractors will likely need to be called in at conflict-inflated rates and under uncertain war-risk insurance.
Elsewhere in the Gulf
The UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia suffered moderate to minor disruptions with a common concern being the density and proximity of the domestic EPC ecosystem surrounding each asset—a variable often underestimated in assessing damages, Rystad said in its analysis.
Saudi Aramco was able to quickly restart its Ras Tanura oil refinery following a drone attack, for example, because maintenance teams were already on-site for a planned turnaround when debris fell inside the perimeter.
Operators will likely restore existing fields before developing new projects, creating demand for EPC contractors and OEMs, especially those with regional experience and existing agreements with national oil companies.
Near-term work is expected to focus on inspection, engineering, and site preparation, followed by equipment replacement and construction. In Iran, continued sanctions would limit access to Western contractors and technology, leaving domestic and East Asian players to capture most recovery-related activity, Rystad predicted.