Africa has emerged as the global leader in high-impact wildcat drilling in 2026 with 40% of the world’s 42 high-impact exploration wells slated for drilling located along the continent’s Atlantic margin, largely in southern Africa’s Orange Basin and the Gulf of Guinea in West Africa.
High-impact wildcat drilling activity is expected to remain elevated this year following a solid 2025 with success rates for high-impact wildcat wells rising to 38% from a 23% performance in 2024, Rystad Energy’s analytics team reported in its “High-Impact Well Outlook," singling out activity in Africa.
Similarly, analysts at Westwood Energy highlighted in a recent webinar that 19 high-impact wells will be drilled in Africa in 2026, up from just five wells drilled in 2021. While the Orange Basin was a major contributor, high-impact wildcat drilling will take place in 11 other African basins.
South America will rank second this year with 15 high-impact wildcat wells expected across 10 different basins, according to Westwood, citing data from its "2026 Key Wells to Watch" report.
Liquid Volumes Rise
In 2025, liquids volumes discovered by high-impact wildcat wells jumped 53% year-on-year to around 2.3 billion BOE, Rystad reported, pointing out that wells designated as high-impact connect to sizable potential resources, open new plays in frontier or emerging basins, or are deemed as significant to the operator.
Rystad highlighted the following:
- Namibia’s Orange Basin (four or more wells) with Shell PEL39 wildcats and stepouts in untested blocks like TotalEnergies’ PEL104
- West Africa/Gulf of Guinea (around eight wells), which include Tano-Ivorian (Murphy Oil), Namibia (Azule), and Angola border prospects by Eni/TotalEnergies
- North/East Africa (around four wells): Sirte (Eni), Herodotus (Shell), and Somalia (TPAO)
TotalEnergies’ exploration targets offshore Namibia and South Africa. Source: TotalEnergies Investor Presentation, 2025 Results/2026 Objectives, 11 February 2026.
Shell and Partners in Namibia
Shell holds an exploration license for PEL 39 offshore Namibia with its JV partners, QatarEnergy (45% participating interest) and Namibia’s national oil company NAMCOR, according to Shell’s website.
Shell has contracted Northern Ocean Ltd.’s (NOL) Deepsea Mira rig to drill one firm well and a second optional well offshore Namibia starting in April 2026, NOL announced in December.
The rig had previously drilled the Volans-1X well in the Orange Basin for Rhino Resources, in partnership with BP’s 50/50 Azule Energy joint venture with Eni.
This year, Shell also plans to test additional prospectivity and evaluate existing finds like Graff, Jonker, and La Rona which earn wildcat status because they target new structures or undrilled prospects within the block to assess commercial potential beyond the six exploration and three appraisal wells that are already drilled within the block, Rystad noted.
Rystad’s outlook for 2026 sees global activity concentrated in ultradeepwater and frontier exploration, with ultradeepwater wells accounting for around 60% of planned drilling by majors.
NOCs and Frontier Regions
National oil companies (NOCs) and international oil companies account for 26% with most wells located in frontier regions. Roughly 5% of the activity focuses on basins with prior discoveries and another 5% will test entirely new plays, according to Rystad.
“What we are seeing in 2026 is a clear shift, where operators are willing to deploy capital. Ultradeepwater and frontier plays remain capital-intensive, but they also offer scale and material upside at a time when conventional opportunities are increasingly limited,” Aatisha Mahajan, head of exploration, oil & gas research, Rystad Energy, said in a news release.
“Africa stands out because it still combines geological potential with the prospect of large, commercially meaningful discoveries, particularly for operators looking to secure long-life resources in a tightening global supply environment.”
All onshore high-impact drilling in 2026 is expected to occur on the African continent, except for a well in Greenland planned to test the frontier Jameson Land, Rystad said.
