The doors of a metal box slide open, and a drone rises over a gas well in Pennsylvania. Its mission: To find leaks of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, so that energy companies can plug the leaks and reduce the emissions that pollute the air.
The drone is among an array of instruments whose purpose is to detect leaks of methane, which scientists say causes roughly 30% of manmade global warming. Along with satellites, ground sensors and planes armed with infrared cameras, drones are part of the backbone of a new federal policy to compel energy companies to record and slash their methane emissions.
The problem is, no one knows when—or even whether—that will be possible. Technology that might allow for precise methane measurements is still being developed. Under the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, enacted into law last year, companies must start producing precise measurements of their methane emissions next year and face fines if they exceed permissible levels. Yet if no one knows how much methane an energy company has emitted, it’s unclear that any fines could be justified.
“They don’t measure the methane because the capability hasn’t been there,” Drew Shindell, a professor of earth science at Duke University, said of regulators. “It’s challenging to really go measure all these methane sources.”
Even energy companies that have begun developing systems to reduce their methane emissions are likely years away from being able to make comprehensive calculations. Most of them are measuring leaks for only a fraction of their operations.
Satellites, which help connect emissions to a single source, aren’t widely enough available. Ground-based sensors and drones require vast amounts of money and time to widely distribute.
On top of all that, any agreement on what equipment would be acceptable to measure methane and how it should be used requires a rigorous process involving industry, government, and environmental scientists.
“We need to develop these standards, and this can take years, so the process is slow,” said Thomas Lauvaux, a climate scientist at University of Reims in France.