This paper introduces dynamic risk modeling and reports on a 2016 proof-of-concept demonstration of the emergent capability. While dynamic risk modeling can apply in any high-risk environment, the demonstration focuses on the high-pressure/high-temperature drilling environment and uses 2010 Macondo cumulative risk as a demonstration scenario.
Dynamic risk modeling integrates the effect of human decisions with technical conditions. It enables three evolutionary capabilities in risk management:
- The awareness of cumulative and current risk based on input from multiple points and times of origin
- The quantitative insight of the coupling effect of multiple hazards when barriers or controls change conditions or fail
- The incorporation of real-time data into risk awareness, management and decisions
The paper demonstrates enhancement of the digital oil field by applying real-time data to predictive decision making. The model receives continuous well data, processes it through the model with other environmental and human factors, and translates it into real-time risk awareness and insight.
The demonstration of dynamic risk modeling is applied to the Deepwater Horizon drilling environment in April 2010 to show how a real-time representation of current and cumulative risk could have aided decision makers with critical information and insight.
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