The Atlantic Margin and Southeast Asia are hot spots in a cooling exploration landscape. Over the next 2 to 3 years explorers are expected to target about 50 billion BOE of reserves, Ruaraidh Montgomery, head of energy trends and analytics at Welligence, said during the company’s 10 July “Chasing the E&P Hot Spots” webinar.
“On the exploration front, I would say it’s been a quiet year so far. Overall, disappointing is probably a fair description, and volumes found to date remain well below replacement levels, and indeed, that has been a characteristic of the exploration space for a number of years now,” he said.
However, he added, there have been some bright spots, including announcements of the Sagittarius and Capricornus finds offshore Namibia, the Sockeye discovery on Alaska’s North Slope, and the Pegasus well offshore Cyprus.
While there have been positive results, they aren’t at the levels needed to replace current production volumes. Looking toward the remainder of 2025 and into the next few years, he said he anticipates the sector will collectively target at least 50 billion BOE.
“The hotspot globally for exploration is the Atlantic Margin on both sides of the ocean. This is where many of the majors, the leading independents [have been] very focused in recent years, and that will continue to be the case going forward,” Montgomery said.
Two key areas are the Guyana-Suriname basin offshore South America and the Orange basin, offshore Namibia and South Africa. Both areas, he noted, have yielded tremendous world-class exploration successes in recent years.
Carlos Bellorin, EVP for energy trends and analysis at Welligence, said Suriname is poised for a “wave of drilling” with 13 wells planned for 2025 and 2026. Annand Jagesar, managing director and CEO of Staatsolie, Suriname’s national oil company, noted one of the planned wells is a Shell prospect outside the Golden Lane geologic trend.
“Guyana and Suriname have not been able to prove commercial oil outside of the Golden Lane,” he said.
But it’s not just exploration that’s planned for offshore Suriname. Jagesar said the TotalEnergies-operated GranMorgu project, in which Staatsolie is a partner, is on track for first oil in 2028. Sanctioned in 2024, GranMorgu in Block 58 represents the first offshore development for the country. Petronas, which operates Block 52, is contemplating a floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) facility to develop its Sloanea gas discovery. Again, Staatsolie is a partner in Block 52.
Jagesar said the expectation is to reach final investment decision on developing Sloanea at the end of 2026.
Gas Exploration
Southeast Asia is another focus for exploration drilling.
“What’s noteworthy about this part of the world compared to most other places, especially the Atlantic margin, is gas is very much a legitimate primary target for exploration,” Montgomery said.
One reason is that gas discoveries in Southeast Asia tend to have a straightforward path to sale, he added.
“Of that 50-billion-barrel [of equivalent] target that I mentioned, around 20% of that, we estimate, is gas, mostly lying in this Asia Pacific region,” he said.
