Top executives from BP, Shell, Petronas, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), and Eni met on 4 November at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC) to examine some of the major challenges and opportunities shaping the future of their companies.
Their discussion spanned an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape, the need to make decarbonization efforts profitable, and the transformative potential of artificial intelligence (AI) within the energy sector.
Geopolitical Concerns and Energy Security
Murray Auchincloss, CEO of BP, opened the talk by citing the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as a primary concern for his company.
“We operate across five or six countries in the region. We're worried, obviously, about the security of our people and the security of energy flow,” he said.
This feeling was echoed by Wael Sawan, CEO of Shell, who noted that regional tensions are his biggest concern. “It is what keeps me awake at night, at the moment, more than anything else, and the safety of all the many who have been impacted,” he said.
Looking toward longer-term concerns, Sawan pointed to the uncertain trajectory of US–China trade relations.
With China’s substantial influence on global energy demand and supply chains, he cautioned that a breakdown in the status quo between the two powerful nations could lead to a “redrawing of the energy complex globally, and how a company like ours needs to be able to navigate that is indeed the big question.”
Petronas CEO Tengku Muhammad Taufik said he shares these concerns which is why his company is readying itself for the potential impacts of a worsening relationship between the US and China.
“A policy from the US which deters or dampens trade or economic activity in China will inevitably have knock-on effects, and we have to prepare for that,” he said. One of Petronas’ strategies in response, Tengku Taufik explained, is to remain “open to trade with anyone—with anyone,” adding that this approach has “held us in good stead.”
Impact of US Election on Energy Policy
When the conversation shifted to the US presidential election on 5 November, Auchincloss highlighted the importance of the US market, which represents more than two-thirds of BP’s business today.
“That's the thing that I hope whoever wins the election can really start to tackle—to make it easier and faster to invest in the United States,” he said.
On the same topic, Shell’s Sawan emphasized that political rhetoric often doesn’t align with policy outcomes.
“If you go back historically, of course, it was under the previous Trump administration that you saw the largest growth in renewables, and under the current Biden administration, you had a great surge in oil and gas,” he said.
Sawan then spoke to the importance of Shell’s long-term approach given the extended project cycles in the industry. “With payback periods lasting between 8 to 15 years,” he explained, “you have to look through a single administration—you typically have to look through two or three administrations.”
However, Sawan said Shell is “monitoring” the election for its potential impact on the Inflation Reduction Act, a law passed by the US Congress in 2022 to boost investments in renewable energy and carbon capture in the US.
On Energy Transition
Musabbeh Al Kaabi, executive director of low-carbon solutions and international growth at ADNOC, spoke about the complexities of energy transition, emphasizing that it will be “very challenging” and requires supportive government policies worldwide to drive substantial investments from companies like ADNOC.
“The bottom line is that here we rely on a lot of government policies, be it in the east or west, to enable the energy transition to be a just, credible, and fair energy transition going forward,” he said.
Al Kaabi highlighted the UAE’s and ADNOC’s strong commitments to sustainability and decarbonization. He pointed to the UAE’s regional leadership as the first Middle Eastern country to sign the Paris Agreement, establish a 2050 net-zero target, and host COP28.
Within ADNOC, Al Kaabi explained that the company has earmarked $23 billion toward low-carbon initiatives and now maintains one of the world’s lowest carbon intensities at 7kg/BOE. ADNOC is also targeting a carbon capture capacity of 10 mtpa of CO2 by 2030 with 4 mtpa of that goal already under construction.
Claudio Descalzi, CEO of Eni, told conference attendees in Abu Dhabi that his company views energy transition as "not only necessary but irreversible.” He highlighted how this shift creates unique opportunities, especially for energy-importing Europe which can benefit from diversification through technology—biofuel production being a key example.
Descalzi noted that Eni has transformed some of its refineries into biorefineries, using proprietary technology to build a profitable, sustainable model that operates without subsidies, a crucial aspect given Europe’s limited fiscal capacity for ongoing incentives.
He explained Eni’s approach, which begins with agricultural initiatives to produce resilient, non-palm-based vegetable oils as biofuel feedstock. These are processed in Eni’s biorefineries and integrated into its retail segment, creating a vertically integrated and profitable model. This success was underscored by Eni’s recent $3-billion equity deal with KKR for a 25% stake in its biofuel business.
Descalzi stressed that Eni’s biofuel and agritech ventures support both energy transition goals and the firm’s long-term growth strategy.
“The transition can work only if you create profit,” he emphasized, diverging from some other executives on the panel who advocated for more subsidies. “We have to forget about incentives and do something that in the transition that can be strong and robust,” he said.
The AI Revolution Is Here
ADNOC is expecting that the capacity of the world’s data centers is set to double by 2030 which will require 150 GW of new capacity—and this may double again by 2040.
With this growth in mind ADNOC is pursuing an energy strategy that focuses on nuclear power, solar, and liquefied natural gas to keep powering the AI data centers of the future.
Al Kaabi added that AI is already creating tangible value for ADNOC and that it helped the company avoid around 1 mtpa of CO2 emissions in the past year. “I think when you look at this case, going forward, it has a huge potential—[AI] can transform our industry,”
Auchincloss of BP highlighted that he has been surprised with the high growth of energy demand that is linked to the data centers supporting major AI initiatives.
He said power demand in the US barely moved from 2020 to 2022 but “now, every month that I review it with the team, we see another tick up, another percentage point up in energy demand growth through the decade” due to the rapid uptake of AI.
For now, the CEO said this demand is being driven by the US, China, and India with other regions likely to join the trend as AI adoption increases.
Auchincloss added that the pace of uptake is being felt across BPs own operations. He said internal adoption moved rapidly from backoffice roles at BP where the company saw a 30% savings in just 3 to 4 months.
The company is now focused on pushing AI into its engineering units where it has had a similar impact—a 30% improvement in cycle time. Auchincloss said some of the AI programs BP is using today can design 1,000 wells in about 3 months which is something he said would’ve taken several years to accomplish previously.
“I think this is probably the biggest revolution that we will see in our careers on productivity and enhancement,” he said.
Auchincloss noted that the pace of AI adoption is accelerating across BP’s operations. Initially applied to back-office roles, where the company achieved 30% savings within just 3 to 4 months, AI is now driving similar results in BP's engineering units, including a 30% improvement in cycle time. He explained that AI programs currently in use can design 1,000 wells in roughly 3 months—a process that he said would have previously taken years.
“I think this is probably the biggest revolution that we will see in our careers on productivity and enhancement,” he said.
