Forecasting Technique Bridges Gap Between Material Balance and Reservoir Simulation
The paper describes an approach to history matching and forecasting that does not require a reservoir simulation model, is data driven, and includes a physics model based on material balance.
Currently, building and maintaining a reservoir simulation model is the bottleneck for reservoir decision support. In this paper, the authors describe an approach for creating a digital twin that is informed by the data itself based on established physics modeling and uses a fully probabilistic Bayesian approach.
Statistical Time-Series Modeling and Physics Models
Differences Between Statistical Models and Physics Models. The statistical model includes an error term for each timestep. In practice, this means that the predicted fit to historic data is very good and the error terms are small, but forecasting can have a major funneling effect.