Forecasting Technique Bridges Gap Between Material Balance and Reservoir Simulation

Currently, building and maintaining a reservoir simulation model is the bottleneck for reservoir decision support. In this paper, the authors describe an approach for creating a digital twin that is informed by the data itself based on established physics modeling and uses a fully probabilistic Bayesian approach.

Statistical Time-Series Modeling and Physics Models

Differences Between Statistical Models and Physics Models. The statistical model includes an error term for each timestep. In practice, this means that the predicted fit to historic data is very good and the error terms are small, but forecasting can have a major funneling effect.