The oil and gas outlook through 2032 is complex, with production growth stories in some regions overshadowing declines in others.
“It’s a complex environment we’re in at the moment,” Ben Wilby, Westwood Global Energy Group’s manager, onshore, told JPT. “You can look at the oil pricing, and it looks a bit doom and gloom, and look at the supply, and it looks a bit doom and gloom, but the fundamentals are quite strong for oil and gas.”
Demand for oil and gas is expected to remain strong through 2032, making room for production growth in many regions, according to Westwood’s Wells & Production Outlook, 2026–2032.
Big growth is expected in places such as the Middle East and parts of the Americas, Asia-Pacific, and Africa. In some cases, offshore projects are expected to pave the way to increased output, such as offshore Brazil, Guyana, Suriname, and Namibia, Wilby said. Production drops are likely in maturing basins where larger finds are needed to offset declining output, he added. And then there are regions where policy or a lack of infrastructure make growing production levels less likely, he added.
“There’s some big headline production growth stories. They are kind of hiding a decline elsewhere,” he said.
Growth in the Middle East
The outlook forecasts the Middle East to see the largest global growth, pegging 19% growth in production by 2032 and wells drilled increasing by 26% by 2032 from 3,500 in 2025 to 4,400.
With the exception of Iran, production growth is expected across the Middle East, Wilby said. For example, Iraq “historically really struggled to achieve what it could but looks to be getting on the right path now,” he said.
With the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), onshore projects in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates are drawing large investments, he said, and the broad outlook for the GCC is positive.
The $100-billion Jafurah project in Saudi Arabia began production in December 2025, and that’s one of the contributors to expected production growth in the region. Production at Jafurah is expected to reach 2 Bcf/D and 630,000 B/D of high-value liquids [e.g., natural gas liquid (NGL) and condensate] by 2030.
Brownfield projects are expected to bolster output in the Middle East, as well.
“These aren’t small brownfield projects. They’re sort of multi-tens of fixed platforms being added, multibillion dollars. And production is either being maintained at 1 million plus barrels for some of these fields and, in some cases, almost doubling,” he said.
Mixed Outlook in the Americas
The forecast projects production in the Americas will reach 66 million BOE/D by 2032, a 7% increase from 2025. Westwood said it believes an uplift in Canadian crude, US gas, and NGL offshore Brazil and Guyana will drive this region’s increase (Fig. 1).
The United States is expected to remain the dominant producer, accounting for 23% of regional output between 2026 and 2032, but it’s possible crude production may peak this year, according to the firm.
“US fundamentals are still clear,” Wilby said, noting the Trump administration is keen to support oil and gas development and that current oil prices support continued growth of the industry. “Operators are still keen.”
Canada is producing at record levels, he said, and that’s expected to continue for the foreseeable future.
In Latin America, Wilby said, the big story is offshore, particularly in Brazil and Guyana, where discoveries have been made and projects have been sanctioned.
Brazil’s offshore liquids production is forecast to grow by 21% to reach 4.5 million BLPD, as 18 floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessels are expected to go onstream between 2026 and 2032.
Neighboring Guyana is expected to double its 2025 average output of 700,000 B/D to reach 1.4 million B/D, with ExxonMobil planning to bring five additional FPSOs online at its Stabroek block.
Suriname, where TotalEnergies’ GranMorgu project is expected to reach first oil in 2028 as the country’s first offshore development, is also expected to see growth. And the Falkland Islands are starting to see movement toward production, where there has been a “long gestation” from discovery to sanction of projects such as Sea Lion, which is expected online in 2028, Wilby said.
For the onshore picture, Argentina output continues to grow on the back of Vaca Muerta shale activity, with LNG projects driving drilling activity and helping production reach 2.4 million BOE/D by 2032. Wilby noted YPF has made Vaca Muerta development a cornerstone of the company’s growth plans.
There’s another reason Argentina output is projected to increase, and that’s the buildup of pipelines and floating LNG facilities.
“One of the things that held back the Argentinian shale story in the past has been offtake capacity and how you actually get it from where it is to where it needs to be,” Wilby said, noting the investment in takeaway capacity. “That’s really quite important for a country like Argentina, which needs to export.”
While much of the Americas presents a positive outlook through 2032, maturing fields are “a real issue,” he said.
Attempts to arrest decline and turn around production rates in several LatAm countries are facing budgetary concerns and being met with insufficient investment.
And, while Venezuela holds vast quantities of heavy oil, substantial investment is required to achieve production uplift there.
“It’s going to take a long time to get that back to where it was at 2 million barrels,” he said. “You’re going to need much higher oil prices than the current ones to make that happen.”
The US is pushing for massive investments in Venezuela’s oil sector in the aftermath of a US military operation to arrest Venezuela President Maduro, but oil executives say investment in Venezuela will depend on governance reforms and sustainable legal protections.
Asia-Pacific Forecast Also Mixed
Westwood forecasts production from Asia-Pacific region will increase from 2025 levels by 9%, reaching 20.3 million BOE/D in 2032, primarily driven by growth in China and Indonesia, while production plateaus in Australia and declines in Southeast Asia because of maturing basins and delays to key projects (Fig. 2).
China’s oil and gas production is increasing alongside its efforts in the energy transition space with renewables, Wilby said. The country’s focus on producing shale gas will help drive up production figures through 2032. But it’s hard going, he said, because wells can be as deep as 10 000 m and require high-quality land rigs and expertise.
“It takes time to develop these things. They’re not starting from nothing because we’ve now got the experience in the US. And some of that is being learned elsewhere, but it is still difficult,” he said.
Indonesia is expected to see output grow by 41% from 2025’s levels to 2.2 million BOE/D, primarily led by offshore projects but supplemented by output bolstered by a variety of enhanced oil recovery projects, he said.
Westwood projects unconventional activity in Australia will grow, contributing to an onshore production increase of 29% by 2032. Australia’s offshore production picture is flat, Wilby said.
India’s story, while positive, is not expected to reach the ambitious production targets set by the government, Wilby said. There are incentives and planned developments, he said, but not enough to grow from 2025’s 1.4 million BOE/D to the targeted level of 1.7 million BOE/D. Instead, Westwood said it is expecting them to reach 1.5 million BOE/D by 2032.
One reason is smaller discoveries pairing with higher development costs to delay project sanctions, he said.
The rest of Asia, Wilby said, is expected to have flat or declining production levels through 2032.
“It’s reserves maturing and linked declining production. Existing fields, new fields aren’t as big as a lot of the countries require. You need to have heavy investment in unconventional projects or things like that to really move the needle, and you’re just not going to realistically see that at the moment,” Wilby said.
Mostly Growth in Africa
Africa’s output is expected to grow to 13 million BOE/D by 2032, largely because of new project start-ups, such as Venus offshore Namibia and Lake Albert in Uganda, and increased recovery in places such as Nigeria (Fig. 3).
Nigeria, for example, should see growth from 2022 lows of 2 million BOE/D to over 3.1 million BOE/D by 2032. Wilby said it appears that several Nigerian projects that had been delayed will reach sanction during the forecast period. There is also increasing investment in the land rig market, he said, which should help with onshore production levels.
“The North Africa story is Libya,” where improving security is drawing operators back, Wilby said. “It feels like people are trying to pick up from where they left off.”
Similarly, he said, investments are returning to Algeria, which is positioning itself as a gas alternative for Russia.
Mozambique, another country with improving security, is poised to increase its production from 200,000 BOE/D in 2025 to 1 million BOE/D in 2032, largely driven by new LNG projects.
Senegal and Ivory Coast are also expected to see production increases over the forecast period.
Wilby called Angola a counterbalance to positive production expectations across the continent.
“They’re trying,” he said, but rates are declining at existing fields, and the project base to boost sagging levels isn’t there. Angola “needs a huge number of big deepwater projects to really see another spike.”
And Declines in Europe
Europe production is expected to drop by 4% by 2032, according to Westwood (Fig. 3). Much of that is because of declining output from mature producing countries such as the UK and Norway exceeding the new production expected from Cyprus and Romania and the projected steady production levels across much of Eastern Europe.
Westwood said it expects Russia to remain Europe’s largest producer by far, with production remaining above 20 million BOE/D over the forecast period.
On the other hand, much of Western Europe lacks incentives to grow production.
“It’s a hard sell,” Wilby said.
While the UK has historically been an important contributor on the oil and gas stage, the country is aggressively targeting renewables, he said.
Norway has very strong government support for oil and gas production, but many of the country’s large fields are entering decline. High levels of exploration there could prop up production levels, he said.
“As a whole, you’re still seeing strong activity levels, strong development drilling,” he said.
Cyprus should see the Cronos and Aphrodite gas projects in the Eastern Mediterranean begin contributing production during the forecast period. Romania’s first deepwater project, Neptun Deep in the Black Sea, is also expected online.
